William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL GOES TO ROMNEY, BUT BACHMANN GAINS – AT 10:36 A.M. ET:  The New Hampshire primary will be, as usual, highly publicized.  It's one of those political staples in any election year.

As expected, Mitt Romney is well ahead in New Hampshire polls at the moment.  He's a local boy, having been governor of neighboring Massachusetts.  Boston TV stations beam into New Hampshire.  But Romney's lead still places him well under 50%, something that could begin to worry his handlers as the campaign progresses.  And Michele Bachmann is rising faster than any other candidate, even in New Hampshire.  From The Politico:

Mitt Romney is holding steady in the state of New Hampshire, but Michele Bachmann is on the rise.

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is drawing 36 percent of the vote in the Granite State, according to a poll released tonight by Suffolk University and WHDH-TV. That's one percentage point more than Romney pulled in Suffolk's last poll, some two months ago.

The biggest mover in Suffolk's polling, however, is Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann ,who has jumped from 3 percent of the vote in May to 11 percent now. With voters who said they watched the June 13 presidential debate in Manchester, Bachmann and Romney split the win: 33 percent of respondents chose Romney as the winner, while 31 percent chose Bachmann.

The other, lower-level movers in the poll: Jon Huntsman, who debuted at 4 percent, and Tim Pawlenty, who lost three points and fell to 2 percent. Also in the low single digits were Sarah Palin (4 percent), Newt Gingrich (2 percent) and Rick Santorum (1 percent).

All told, the poll shows Romney in a commanding position in the early primary state where he's placed his strongest emphasis, so far, with Bachmann sucking up much of the remaining oxygen. Bolstering Romney's position is the fact that nearly half of Republican primary voters — 46 percent — said that jobs and the economy were the top issues in the campaign.

COMMENT:  If Bachmann can cut into Romney's lead in New Hampshire, well outside her home base in the Midwest, that would be news.  It also might seriously hobble Romney's quest for the nomination.  We do not hear any great yearning for Mitt.

But Bachmann is now under a relentless assault by the media crowd.  In part it's because of their pathological obsession with demonizing conservative women.  "Palinizing" will be a word that will enter the political vocabulary.  But, in part, it's because of her own constant gaffes and her evasiveness in answering legitimate questions.  Bachmann must finally realize that complaining about press bias and insults is not enough.  That's the field we're on.  Republicans will be judged by a higher standard, and must meet that standard, fair or not.  Bachmann did well in the New Hampshire debate.  Since then she has been only so-so in press interviews.  We'll follow her closely.  Like her or not, she's a fascinating political story.

June 29, 2011